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What you need to know about Georgia's special election

Georgia special election
Georgia special election viewed as referendum on President Trump 02:25

On Tuesday, now-HHS Secretary Tom Price's seat is up for grabs in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. He cruised to victory with a 23-point margin in November. The race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel could be considerably closer.

Tuesday's election is a runoff, a result of the fact that no candidate won 50 percent of the vote in the April 18 jungle primary. Ossoff received 48.1 percent and Handel came in second with 19.8 percent in the 18-candidate field, including 11 Republicans, 5 Democrats, 2 independents.

The election, which has become the most expensive House race in history, is being touted as a must-win for both parties, but it's not necessarily predictive of what's to come in the 2018 midterms.

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, but in-person early voting was open from May 30-June 16, and over 140,000 cast early ballots -- including 36,000 who didn't vote in the April primary -- according to the Georgia secretary of State. In the primary, 192,000 voters cast ballots, including 52,000 early voters.

The district, which consists of Atlanta's northern suburbs, comprises parts of Cobb, DeKalb and Fulton counties.

The seat has been in Republican hands since Newt Gingrich won in 1978. Johnny Isakson, now a senator, replaced him in 1999, and Tom Price replaced Isakson in 2005.

Republican strategist on Ga. election, Trump's 100 days 05:40

President Trump won this district, which is considered solidly Republican, by a slim 1.5 percent in 2016. In contrast, Mitt Romney won it by 23 points.

The district is 70 percent white, 13 percent black, and 13 percent Hispanic. The Cook Political Report has described the district "as one of the wealthiest, most urban, and best-educated districts that voted Republican last fall." The report also called it "an outlier and rather unrepresentative of the larger House playing field."

The Candidates

Republican Karen Handel, 55, served as Georgia's secretary of State from 2007-2010. She resigned in 2010 to run for governor, losing a runoff to Nathan Deal, who went on to win the general election. Handel also ran for U.S. Senate in 2014 and came in third in the GOP primary. Outside of public office, she worked as vice president of public policy for the Susan G. Komen for the Cure from 2011-2012, resigning after Komen reversed its controversial move to cut ties with Planned Parenthood, a move that happened under Handel's watch. She has also served as chairman of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners, and deputy chief of staff to former Gov. Sonny Perdue.

Democrat Jon Ossoff, 30, is a documentary filmmaker and a former Capitol Hill staffer, working for five years as a legislative aide, with a focus on national security, to Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Georgia.  This is his first run for political office.

He also does not live in the district, a fact seized upon by Republicans, including President Trump, who tweeted about it on the day before the election.

The Issues

Ossoff is a staunch opponent of the GOP efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare. He has run ads with a centrist fiscal message of cutting "wasteful spending." Because the district is traditionally Republican and conservative, an anti-Trump message has not been much of a priority for Ossoff during his campaign.

Handel hasn't shunned Mr. Trump but she's hasn't exactly emphasized him in her campaign, either. 

With regard to Mr. Trump's Russia controversy, she has said let's see "where the facts take us" but has also called the controversy "noise." On health care, she's been lukewarm on the GOP effort to repeal and replace Obamacare, saying that the House bill isn't perfect. Handel is trying to sell herself as fiscally conservative and an "independent" while slamming Ossoff as too liberal for the district. Mr. Trump tweeted his support Handel on Monday, slamming Democrats' efforts to "stop tax cuts, good health care and border security."

The Money

Between the Ossoff and Handel campaigns and outside groups, at least $40 million has been spent so far on this race. As of May 31, Ossoff had raised $23.6 million for the primary and runoff combined, a whopping $8.3 million for the primary and $15.3 million since. Republicans are loudly criticizing the fact that the vast majority of his campaign donations are from out of state.

Handel has raised a total of $4.56 million as of May 31, but she has had way more help from outside groups.

It's estimated that $12 million has been spent by outside groups on behalf of Handel with $6.2 million spent on ads by the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund being the largest share of that. Ossoff has been the beneficiary of $6.7 million from outside groups with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $5 million outlay making up the biggest chunk of that total.

According to IssueOne, a pro-campaign finance reform group that looked at filings with the Federal Election Commission, $59.6 million has been invested in the race so far by all candidates and political groups, including money that was spent during the primary process of the election.

What Tuesday's results will or won't mean

If Ossoff wins, it'll give heart to Democrats that the enthusiasm among Democratic voters and activists who oppose Mr. Trump can make a difference in midterm races, even in some Republican districts. Mr. Trump's opponents around the country -- Democrats and anti-Trump independents -- will have some proof that Mr. Trump can be a political liability and they'll get a huge lift in terms of energy and enthusiasm for recruiting candidates and for fundraising.

However, if Handel wins, the deep divisions within the Democratic Party about which direction the party should go will surely be amplified. An Ossoff loss would hit Democrats hard, after his candidacy was fueled by so much cash and Democratic voter enthusiasm. And it would continue the party's winless streak in the 2017 special elections. The continuing battle between progressives and establishment Democrats would likely intensify. Even if Ossoff wins, that battle within the party will continue to rage, though it may be briefly tamped down as Democrats celebrate his victory.

If Handel loses, the chatter about a negative "Trump effect" will likely rise to a fever pitch. Republican hand-wringing about how Trump's controversies and negative ratings will affect them in future elections will be in full force. Why? Again, it's mainly because this is a Republican district that has been held by Republicans for decades -- even though Trump barely squeaked by Clinton with a mere 1.5 percent margin in November.

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